•  
  •  
 

Abstract

In response to the increasingly dense navigation and frequent accidents involving commercial and fishing vessels in the waters under the jurisdiction of Lianyungang in recent years, which have led to complex and severe navigational risk issues, this study proposes a quantitative analysis of navigational risks in the waters of Lianyungang jurisdiction using a combined Bayesian Network (BN) and Risk Matrix Method (LS) navigational risk assessment model. Risk factors are extracted based on accident data and literature review, correlation analysis is utilized to identify the dependency relationships among risk factors, and the findings are integrated with expert inquiry as prior information into the K2 algorithm,which is then utilized to find an appropriate navigational risk BN structure. Conditional probability tables for each node are obtained through accident data and expert inquiry. The reliability of the model is validated,the navigational risk in the waters is quantified and the key risk factor nodes and their states affecting navigation safety are identified through error analysis, backward reasoning, and sensitivity analysis, which offers decision support for formulating safety measures for vessel navigation in the waters under the jurisdiction of Lianyungang. On the basis of considering regional navigational risk research, the BN-LS method is used to quantitatively calculate the navigational risk in the waters under the jurisdiction of a certain maritime bureau, providing reference for further research on the fine-grained characteristics and safety measures of navigational risk in its port area waters.

Download
COinS