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Abstract

The shipping network serves as the backbone of international trade. However, due to unstable geopolitical conditions, unexpected events have occurred frequently in recent years that have impacted the global shipping supply chain, and this has placed enormous pressure and had adverse effects on seaborne transportation. To measure the reliability of the global shipping network under unexpected events, we abstract the global shipping network into a small world network using uncertainty theory. A method is proposed for selecting (i) the optimal reliable path and (ii) the optimal reliable path with a maximum measurement under different confidence intervals. Our approach is then applied to evaluate the connectivity reliability of China’s bulk commodity shipping network, which includes 46 key strait and canal nodes. The results show that the reliability of China’s bulk commodity shipping network is 0.8, and the optimal seaborne transportation path is given with different confidence intervals after an unexpected event occurs. Our findings provide managerial insights for selecting the optimal transportation path after an emergency. The results also suggest that the import and export of goods from relevant regions should be reduced, or the routes in these regions should be optimised, to minimise losses and guarantee national strategic security.

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