The AIS data is powerful ‘Big Data’ of marine traffic and can provide critical insights for risk assessment and ship navigation in the congested waterway. In our previous work (Huang et al., 2019), a statistical approach was proposed to explore the information of ship navigation from AIS data. In this study, we extend the previous methods to study navigation safety in the approaching fairway of Keelung Harbour. The AIS data is acquired according to the factors of mooring dock, ship size and seasonal conditions. The statistical method is used to establish a ship behaviour model considering the lateral position, speed and headings for the inbound ships. The probability of potential colliding scenario and probability of colliding are defined. The analysis shows that the colliding risk of the inbound ship with breakwater is quite low, which is consistent with the records from the government. The results of the present study provide valuable information for ship traffic monitoring in the Vessel Traffic Sevice (VTS) station of Keelung Harbour.

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