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Abstract

In this study we look at infrastructure tender projects. Financial data for cost estimates are collected from 42 infrastructure tender projects (including 20 MRT construction tender projects, 14 highway construction tender projects, and 8 public building tender projects). The Takagi-Sugeno’s fuzzy theory is first applied to build an s-curve regression model for big projects. After the model is fitted, the cash-to-cash cycle concept is applied to analyze and diagram cash flow estimations for the execution stage of contracted projects. The goal is to understand short-term financial demands that occur during the execution stage, which leads to a better understanding of cash flow problems. Then, by revising the Miller-Orr cash flow model, a flexible target cash balance model with dual control limits is developed. The analysis of the model application is simple. All the calculations can be done with a trial balance software package such as Excel. In practice, contractors can use s-curve models to preview the cash distribution and amount demanded before projects are executed. Once construction is under way, data from the actual project cash flow can be used to update and revise the predictions. Preparation for dispatching of funds will be made according to cash predictions from the models.

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