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Abstract

Price variation is one of the major factors taken into account in cost control decision in construction projects. Previous researches have focused on the short-term price prediction of a merchandise within a closed single market without considering the long-term effect by interacting with other markets. The econometric methods such as structural break test, co-integration analysis, and Granger causality test were used to examine the dynamic short-term and long-term relationships of steel prices between two different markets, Taiwan and China, over the period of 1995 ~ 2004. The steel price of China was found to have the leading discovery function by the following evidence. The structure change of China steel market leads Taiwan steel market at least six months and these two markets are cointegrated into a long-term equilibrium relationship. In addition, a bidirectional causality exists between these two markets suggested by the results from Granger causality test.

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